Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fortuna Sittard face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord meet at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season.
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 7 wins from 10 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 76% and Feyenoord 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 68% | Feyenoord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.21 xG and Feyenoord 3.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.956 / defence 1.190 | Feyenoord attack 1.435 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.832. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.435 — the away xG of 3.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Fortuna Sittard games / 41 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 11% | Draw 15% | Feyenoord 75%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 9.09 | Draw 6.67 | Feyenoord 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 3.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 90% | Feyenoord 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 11% | Draw 15% | Feyenoord 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 68% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.21 / Feyenoord 3.13 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.956 / def 1.190 | Feyenoord attack 1.435 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.832 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
3.13
Feyenoord xG
68%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 11% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 75% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
Record (10 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 3 | Feyenoord 7W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.44x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 3.13.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-3, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 0-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
11%
9.46
15%
6.76
75%
1.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
0 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
4.34
3.13
Feyenoord xG
9.46
11%
Home win
6.76
15%
Draw
1.34
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
4%
22.85
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
0%
–
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 3.13 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 4.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 15W 7D 19L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord's form line: 24W 10D 7L from 41 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 11W 5D 4L from 20 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.32 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 15W 7D 19L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.40 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, Feyenoord have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 80%, Feyenoord 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Fortuna Sittard and 60% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 45% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 60% of Feyenoord's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.