Feyenoord 2-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Feijenoord this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Feyenoord's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Feyenoord lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 4–0 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 52% versus Willem II 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 67% | Willem II 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.17 xG and Willem II 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.293 / defence 0.978 | Willem II attack 0.536 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.303. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Feyenoord games / 27 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 72% | Draw 18% | Willem II 10%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Willem II 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 40% | Willem II 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 72% | Draw 18% | Willem II 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 44% | xG Feyenoord 2.17 / Willem II 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.293 / def 0.978 | Willem II attack 0.536 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Willem II xG
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Willem II kick off?
Feyenoord vs Willem II kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Feyenoord 2 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Feyenoord vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Willem II part of?
Feyenoord vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 72% chance of winning, Willem II a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Feyenoord and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): Feyenoord 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Willem II in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.29) and Willem II's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.54x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 3-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
72%
1.40
18%
5.55
10%
9.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.86
0.68
Willem II xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
9.70
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
1%
85.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.68 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 17W 4D 6L from 27 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 16L across 27 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 9W 2D 2L from 13 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 2W 2D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 0.85 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Willem II in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 17W 4D 6L in their last 27 games (2.04 PPG), while Willem II have gone 6W 5D 16L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Willem II away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.23 PPG; Willem II away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Willem II in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-4 on 15 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Feyenoord
2
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 2, Willem II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Willem II 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Willem II?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 46%, Willem II 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Feyenoord) and 54% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Willem II in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 46% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Feyenoord's matches and 54% of Willem II's.
Do Feyenoord and Willem II tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Willem II in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Willem II 2-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.17 xG and Willem II 0.68 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.29 / defence 0.98 against Willem II attack 0.54 / defence 1.46, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 72% | Draw 18% | Willem II 10%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Willem II's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.