Feyenoord 0-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Vitesse at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord at Stadion Feijenoord this season: 7W 1D 1L from 9 home games — 2.44 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 2L across 9 road games this term (2.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Feyenoord at 2.30 PPG versus Vitesse's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Feyenoord have won 0, Vitesse 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 44% versus Vitesse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 67% | Vitesse 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.95 xG and Vitesse 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.443 / defence 1.039 | Vitesse attack 1.083 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.336. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.443 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Feyenoord games / 18 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 48% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 30%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Vitesse 3.33. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 44% | Vitesse 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 48% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Feyenoord 1.95 / Vitesse 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.443 / def 1.039 | Vitesse attack 1.083 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Vitesse xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Vitesse kick off?
Feyenoord vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Feyenoord 0 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Feyenoord vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Vitesse part of?
Feyenoord vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 48% chance of winning, Vitesse a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Feyenoord and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Vitesse?
Record (1 meetings): Feyenoord 0W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Feyenoord and Vitesse in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Vitesse (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
48%
2.08
22%
4.45
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.46
1.50
Vitesse xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
14%
7.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
4%
23.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.50 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord come into this having played 18 games, going 12W 3D 3L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feyenoord on 2.17 PPG, Vitesse on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Feyenoord's home form reads 7W 1D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 2.11 points per game from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.39 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 12W 3D 3L in their last 18 games (2.17 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Vitesse away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.44 PPG; Vitesse away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Vitesse in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Feyenoord
0
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 3, Vitesse have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Vitesse 1-2 Feyenoord.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 44%, Vitesse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Feyenoord and 56% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Vitesse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 44% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 56% of Vitesse's.
Do Feyenoord and Vitesse tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Feyenoord 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Feyenoord 0-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.95 xG and Vitesse 1.50 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Feyenoord fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.44 / defence 1.04 against Vitesse attack 1.08 / defence 1.17, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 48% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 30%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Vitesse 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitesse's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.17 PPG, Vitesse 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.