Feyenoord 1-2 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs Twente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus Twente in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Twente (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Twente's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Feyenoord, 0 for Twente and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Twente half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 54% versus Twente 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 67% | Twente 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.55 xG and Twente 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.236 / defence 1.013 | Twente attack 0.945 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.253. Data: 33 Feyenoord games / 33 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 45% | Draw 25% | Twente 29%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Twente 3.45. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 50% | Twente 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 45% | Draw 25% | Twente 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Feyenoord 1.55 / Twente 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.236 / def 1.013 | Twente attack 0.945 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Twente xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Twente kick off?
Feyenoord vs Twente kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Twente?
Feyenoord 1 - 2 Twente.
Where is Feyenoord vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Twente part of?
Feyenoord vs Twente is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 45% chance of winning, Twente a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Feyenoord and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Twente?
Record (1 meetings): Feyenoord 0W | Draws 1 | Twente 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Twente in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Twente (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Twente's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Twente's attack (0.94x) against Feyenoord's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
45%
2.20
25%
3.99
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.75
1.20
Twente xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
6%
16.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.20 for Twente, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 22W 5D 6L from 33 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Twente, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 6L across 33 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.15 PPG for Feyenoord against 1.97 for Twente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 11W 3D 2L from 16 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Twente's away record stands at 9W 3D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.61 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Twente in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Current Season
Twente
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Twente in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 22W 5D 6L in their last 33 games (2.15 PPG), while Twente have gone 19W 8D 6L in their last 33 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Twente away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.25 PPG; Twente away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Twente in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 2-6 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Twente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Feyenoord
4
Draws
3
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Twente?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 3, Twente have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Twente 2-0 Feyenoord.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 50%, Twente 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Feyenoord) and 50% (Twente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Twente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Feyenoord's games and 62% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Feyenoord's matches and 50% of Twente's.
Do Feyenoord and Twente tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Twente in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Twente defy the odds to beat Feyenoord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Feyenoord 1-2 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.55 xG and Twente 1.20 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Twente outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.24 / defence 1.01 against Twente attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 45% | Draw 25% | Twente 29%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Twente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Twente 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Twente's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.15 PPG, Twente 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Twente win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.