Feyenoord 3-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Sparta Rotterdam at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Feyenoord, 0 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 4–0 with Feyenoord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 54% versus Sparta Rotterdam 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 67% | Sparta Rotterdam 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.25 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.076 / defence 0.745 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.786 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.398. Sparta Rotterdam's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Feyenoord games / 39 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 47% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 24%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.17. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 47% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Feyenoord 1.25 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.076 / def 0.745 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.786 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sparta Rotterdam xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Feyenoord 3 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 47% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (2 meetings): Feyenoord 2W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.42
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.07
0.82
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.82 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord come into this having played 39 games, going 26W 6D 7L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.08 PPG from 39 outings (10W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Feyenoord's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.95 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 26W 6D 7L in their last 39 games (2.15 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 10W 12D 17L in their last 39 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.11 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
2
Draws
1
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Feyenoord 3-4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 47%, Sparta Rotterdam 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Feyenoord) and 47% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 32%; Sparta Rotterdam in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 37% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Feyenoord's matches and 47% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.25 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.82 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Rotterdam landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.08 / defence 0.74 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.79 / defence 0.71, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 47% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 24%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Sparta Rotterdam 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.