Feyenoord 2-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Wednesday 25 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord at Stadion Feijenoord this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Feyenoord's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Feyenoord lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 55% versus NEC Nijmegen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 61% | NEC Nijmegen 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.40 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.160 / defence 0.764 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.721 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.219. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Feyenoord games / 51 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 52% | Draw 32% | NEC Nijmegen 16%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.92 | Draw 3.12 | NEC Nijmegen 6.25. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 50% | NEC Nijmegen 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 52% | Draw 32% | NEC Nijmegen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Feyenoord 1.40 / NEC Nijmegen 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.160 / def 0.764 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.721 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.67
NEC Nijmegen xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 25 January 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Feyenoord 2 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 52% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (3 meetings): Feyenoord 2W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.16x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.72x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
52%
1.90
32%
3.14
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.08
0.67
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.90
52%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
4%
26.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.67 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord come into this having played 51 games, going 33W 10D 8L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.18 PPG from 51 outings (14W 18D 19L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Feyenoord's home form reads 16W 6D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.36 points per game from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.20 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 33W 10D 8L in their last 51 games (2.14 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 14W 18D 19L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.16 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-4 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
5
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 48%, NEC Nijmegen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Feyenoord) and 44% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 32%; NEC Nijmegen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 52% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Feyenoord's recent games and 44% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat NEC Nijmegen 2-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.40 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.67 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.16 / defence 0.76 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.72 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 52% | Draw 32% | NEC Nijmegen 16%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 61%, NEC Nijmegen 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.