Feyenoord 5-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 4W 0D 1L across 5 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.33 PPG across 6 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.07 in Feyenoord's favour (2.40 vs 1.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Feyenoord 40% | NEC Nijmegen 20%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 80% | NEC Nijmegen 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.63 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.147 / defence 0.978 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.715 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.365. Data: 5 Feyenoord games / 6 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 53% | Draw 25% | NEC Nijmegen 22%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | NEC Nijmegen 4.55. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 40% | NEC Nijmegen 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 53% | Draw 25% | NEC Nijmegen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Feyenoord 1.63 / NEC Nijmegen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.147 / def 0.978 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.715 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.95
NEC Nijmegen xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Feyenoord 5 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 53% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.15x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.71x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.05
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.59
0.95
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
4%
23.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.95 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 0D 1L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Feyenoord's scoring rate against NEC Nijmegen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 20%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; NEC Nijmegen in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Feyenoord or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-4 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
5
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Feyenoord) and 20% (NEC Nijmegen) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Feyenoord) and 20% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 60%; NEC Nijmegen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 20% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Feyenoord's recent games and 20% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat NEC Nijmegen 5-3 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.63 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.95 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 53% | Draw 25% | NEC Nijmegen 22%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 80%, NEC Nijmegen 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord scored 5 against a 2.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.