Feyenoord 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Groningen travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Groningen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Feyenoord are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Feyenoord, 0 for Groningen and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Groningen trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 46% versus Groningen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 67% | Groningen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.16 xG and Groningen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.424 / defence 0.953 | Groningen attack 0.923 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.321. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Feyenoord games / 24 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 60% | Draw 21% | Groningen 19%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Groningen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 40% | Groningen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 60% | Draw 21% | Groningen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Feyenoord 2.16 / Groningen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.424 / def 0.953 | Groningen attack 0.923 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Groningen xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Groningen kick off?
Feyenoord vs Groningen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Feyenoord 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Feyenoord vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Groningen part of?
Feyenoord vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 60% chance of winning, Groningen a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Feyenoord and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Record (1 meetings): Feyenoord 0W | Draws 1 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Groningen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.42) and Groningen's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.77
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.32
1.16
Groningen xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
12%
8.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
2%
44.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.16 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 16W 3D 5L from 24 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 9L across 24 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 9W 1D 2L from 12 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 4W 2D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.12 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Groningen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 16W 3D 5L in their last 24 games (2.12 PPG), while Groningen have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Groningen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.33 PPG; Groningen away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Groningen in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Feyenoord
3
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 5, Groningen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 42%, Groningen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Feyenoord and 67% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 67% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 67% of Groningen's.
Do Feyenoord and Groningen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Groningen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 25, as Feyenoord and Groningen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.16 xG and Groningen 1.16 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.42 / defence 0.95 against Groningen attack 0.92 / defence 1.32, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 60% | Draw 21% | Groningen 19%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Groningen 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Groningen's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.