Feyenoord vs Groningen – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Groningen travel to De Kuip to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 May 2027, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's home record at De Kuip: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Feyenoord are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Feyenoord: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Groningen, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Groningen trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 61% versus Groningen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 63% | Groningen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.24 xG and Groningen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.286 / defence 0.868 | Groningen attack 0.976 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.834. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Feyenoord games / 41 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 52% | Draw 22% | Groningen 25%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Groningen 4.00. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 80% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 52% | Draw 22% | Groningen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Feyenoord 2.24 / Groningen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.286 / def 0.868 | Groningen attack 0.976 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.834 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Groningen xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Groningen kick off?
Feyenoord vs Groningen is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at De Kuip.
Where is Feyenoord vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Groningen part of?
Feyenoord vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 52% chance of winning, Groningen a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Feyenoord and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Record (8 meetings): Feyenoord 5W | Draws 3 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Groningen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Groningen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.29) and Groningen's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.46
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.79
1.55
Groningen xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
11%
9.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
3%
36.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.55 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 24W 10D 7L from 41 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 16L across 41 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 12W 5D 3L from 20 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 8W 3D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.54 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Groningen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 games (2.00 PPG), while Groningen have gone 17W 8D 16L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Groningen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.05 PPG; Groningen away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Groningen in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Feyenoord
3
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 5, Groningen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Feyenoord at 75%, Groningen at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Feyenoord) and 45% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Feyenoord's games and 60% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Feyenoord's matches and 45% of Groningen's.
Do Feyenoord and Groningen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Groningen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.