Feyenoord 5-0 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard meet at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Feyenoord have posted 6W 1D 0L at Stadion Feijenoord — 2.71 PPG. They are averaging 2.71 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Feyenoord's 2.30 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Fortuna Sittard's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 50% and Fortuna Sittard 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 71% | Fortuna Sittard 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.69 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.403 / defence 1.060 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.800 / defence 1.577. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.349. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.403 — their λ of 2.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.577 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Feyenoord games / 14 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 70% | Draw 16% | Fortuna Sittard 14%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.43 | Draw 6.25 | Fortuna Sittard 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.69 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 57% | Fortuna Sittard 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 70% | Draw 16% | Fortuna Sittard 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 64% | xG Feyenoord 2.69 / Fortuna Sittard 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.403 / def 1.060 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.800 / def 1.577 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Fortuna Sittard xG
64%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Feyenoord 5 - 0 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 70% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 14% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.69. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.80x) against Feyenoord's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
70%
1.42
16%
6.24
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.84
1.14
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.42
70%
Home win
6.24
16%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
7%
14.81
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
1%
107.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.14 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 10W 2D 2L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 2W 3D 9L from 14 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — Feyenoord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.14 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard in 79%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 10W 2D 2L in their last 14 games (2.29 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.71 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
3
Draws
0
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Feyenoord, 86% for Fortuna Sittard — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Feyenoord and 57% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Feyenoord's games and 86% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Feyenoord's matches and 57% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Fortuna Sittard 5-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.69 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.14 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortuna Sittard landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 1.06 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.80 / defence 1.58, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 70% | Draw 16% | Fortuna Sittard 14%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 71%, Fortuna Sittard 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.