Feyenoord 1-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AZ Alkmaar make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Stadion Feijenoord this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2W 0D 4L from 6 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 0.70 PPG lead over AZ Alkmaar (2.20 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, AZ Alkmaar in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 70%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 70%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 60% and AZ Alkmaar 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 80% | AZ Alkmaar 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.54 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.328 / defence 1.228 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.915 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.416. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AZ Alkmaar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Feyenoord games / 10 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 58% | Draw 18% | AZ Alkmaar 23%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.72 | Draw 5.56 | AZ Alkmaar 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.13. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.13 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.13 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 75% | AZ Alkmaar 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 58% | Draw 18% | AZ Alkmaar 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 73% | xG Feyenoord 2.54 / AZ Alkmaar 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.328 / def 1.228 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.915 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.59
AZ Alkmaar xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Feyenoord 1 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 58% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 23% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.33) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (0.92x) against Feyenoord's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
58%
1.71
18%
5.41
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
4.13
1.59
AZ Alkmaar xG
1.71
58%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.75
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
8%
12.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
2%
54.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.59 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 4.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 7W 1D 2L from 10 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar, meanwhile, have gone 5W 0D 5L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AZ Alkmaar heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AZ Alkmaar's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AZ Alkmaar's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.20 scored and 1.70 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 60%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 games (2.20 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.50 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
2
Draws
1
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Feyenoord, 75% for AZ Alkmaar — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Feyenoord and 75% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Feyenoord's games and 75% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Feyenoord's matches and 75% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out AZ Alkmaar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.54 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.59 xG, a combined 4.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Feyenoord fell 1.5 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.33 / defence 1.23 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.92 / defence 1.40, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 58% | Draw 18% | AZ Alkmaar 23%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 80%, AZ Alkmaar 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.