FC Volendam 2-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host Waalwijk at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 January 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Waalwijk — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 69% and Waalwijk 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 69% | Waalwijk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.43 xG and Waalwijk 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.746 / defence 1.538 | Waalwijk attack 0.891 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.316. FC Volendam's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 FC Volendam games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 29% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Waalwijk 2.22. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Waalwijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 29% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Volendam 1.43 / Waalwijk 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.746 / def 1.538 | Waalwijk attack 0.891 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Waalwijk xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Waalwijk kick off?
FC Volendam vs Waalwijk kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk part of?
FC Volendam vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 29% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Volendam and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Waalwijk in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.75x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
29%
3.43
26%
3.89
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.23
1.80
Waalwijk xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
5%
20.84
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.80 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 22W 13D 14L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 13W 17D 19L from 49 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (13W 3D 8L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 11D 9L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.33 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 22W 13D 14L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 13W 17D 19L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Waalwijk away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.75 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Waalwijk runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2023, when Waalwijk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
0
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Waalwijk?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when FC Volendam 3-2 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 75%, Waalwijk at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC Volendam and 54% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Volendam's games and 71% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Volendam's matches and 54% of Waalwijk's.
Do FC Volendam and Waalwijk tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Waalwijk 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.43 xG and Waalwijk 1.80 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.75 / defence 1.54 against Waalwijk attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 29% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 45%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 69%, Waalwijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.