FC Volendam 1-3 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Heerenveen make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Heerenveen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Heerenveen are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 72% and Heerenveen 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 67% | Heerenveen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.39 xG and Heerenveen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.957 / defence 1.517 | Heerenveen attack 0.815 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.310. Data: 10 FC Volendam games / 44 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 32% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Heerenveen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 90% | Heerenveen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 32% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Volendam 1.39 / Heerenveen 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.957 / def 1.517 | Heerenveen attack 0.815 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Heerenveen xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Heerenveen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
FC Volendam 1 - 3 Heerenveen.
Where is FC Volendam vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Heerenveen part of?
FC Volendam vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 32% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Volendam and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heerenveen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Heerenveen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.96) and Heerenveen's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.81x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
32%
3.09
25%
3.99
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.01
1.62
Heerenveen xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
6%
15.63
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.62 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 22W 14D 10L from 46 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 18L across 46 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heerenveen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 14W 3D 5L from 22 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 5W 8D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.07 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 22W 14D 10L in their last 46 games (1.74 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Heerenveen away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.05 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heerenveen won 0-4 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
1
Draws
4
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heerenveen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Heerenveen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC Volendam 0-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Heerenveen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 77%, Heerenveen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC Volendam and 41% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 32%; Heerenveen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of FC Volendam's games and 46% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC Volendam's matches and 41% of Heerenveen's.
Do FC Volendam and Heerenveen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat FC Volendam 1-3 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.39 xG and Heerenveen 1.62 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Heerenveen outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.96 / defence 1.52 against Heerenveen attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 32% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 43%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 67%, Heerenveen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.