Excelsior 1-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Excelsior at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to face Excelsior in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 January 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Excelsior, 0.70 for Groningen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Excelsior have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Groningen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 62% and Groningen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 67% | Groningen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.38 xG and Groningen 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.823 / defence 1.168 | Groningen attack 0.821 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.337. Data: 14 Excelsior games / 48 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 37% | Draw 30% | Groningen 33%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Groningen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 70% | Groningen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 37% | Draw 30% | Groningen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Excelsior 1.38 / Groningen 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.823 / def 1.168 | Groningen attack 0.821 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Groningen xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Groningen kick off?
Excelsior vs Groningen kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Groningen?
Excelsior 1 - 0 Groningen.
Where is Excelsior vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Groningen part of?
Excelsior vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 37% chance of winning, Groningen a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Excelsior and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and Groningen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Groningen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.82x) against Excelsior's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.31
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.66
1.28
Groningen xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.28 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 20W 12D 16L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 12W 12D 24L from 48 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 6W 5D 13L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.21 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Groningen in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Groningen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Groningen have gone 12W 12D 24L in their last 48 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Groningen away?
Excelsior's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.62 PPG; Groningen away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Excelsior
0
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Groningen?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, Groningen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Groningen 2-3 Excelsior.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 62%, Groningen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Excelsior and 67% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Excelsior's games and 67% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Excelsior's matches and 67% of Groningen's.
Do Excelsior and Groningen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Groningen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out Groningen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Groningen 1-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.38 xG and Groningen 1.28 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Groningen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against Groningen attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 37% | Draw 30% | Groningen 33%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, Groningen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.