Excelsior 1-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus ADO Den Haag in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 2.50 PPG across 4 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 1D 0L. Last five: D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ADO Den Haag's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, ADO Den Haag are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 2.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Excelsior lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2022, ended 2–3 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 50% and ADO Den Haag 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 75% | ADO Den Haag 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.16 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.303. Data: 0 Excelsior games / 0 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 33% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 39%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | ADO Den Haag 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Excelsior 50% | ADO Den Haag 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 33% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Excelsior 1.16 / ADO Den Haag 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.27
ADO Den Haag xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 24 May 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Excelsior 1 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 33% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Excelsior and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and ADO Den Haag?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 1W.
What form are Excelsior and ADO Den Haag in?
Excelsior (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-W-W-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.85) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (0.85x) against Excelsior's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.65
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.43
1.27
ADO Den Haag xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Excelsior and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.27 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Excelsior have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 3W 1D 0L record — D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Excelsior's scoring rate against ADO Den Haag's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 100%.
Defensively: Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have Excelsior or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Excelsior go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 7-1 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Excelsior
2
Draws
1
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and ADO Den Haag?
From 8 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 5, ADO Den Haag have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and ADO Den Haag?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Excelsior, 100% for ADO Den Haag — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Excelsior and 100% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Excelsior's games and 100% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Excelsior's matches and 100% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Excelsior and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior and ADO Den Haag finished level at 1-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.16 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.27 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 33% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 39%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 75%, ADO Den Haag 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Excelsior managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.