Emmen 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 46%, yet in-form Emmen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Emmen vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Waalwijk at De Oude Meerdijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Emmen — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Emmen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Emmen in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 40% versus Waalwijk 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 46% | Waalwijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.28 xG and Waalwijk 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | Waalwijk attack 1.001 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.438. Data: 1 Emmen games / 35 Waalwijk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Emmen 30% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 46%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 2.17. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 30% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Emmen 1.28 / Waalwijk 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | Waalwijk attack 1.001 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Waalwijk xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Waalwijk kick off?
Emmen vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Waalwijk?
Emmen 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Emmen vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Waalwijk part of?
Emmen vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 30% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Emmen and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Waalwijk in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.86) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
30%
3.36
24%
4.15
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.94
1.66
Waalwijk xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
6%
17.57
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Emmen and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Emmen and 1.66 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen's recent record stands at 25W 4D 6L from 35 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 14L across 35 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 15W 0D 2L from 17 games — 2.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 3W 8D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.20 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 66%.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 25W 4D 6L in their last 35 games (2.26 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 9W 12D 14L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Waalwijk away?
Emmen's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.65 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Emmen or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Waalwijk runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when Waalwijk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Emmen
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Waalwijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Waalwijk 5-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 41%, Waalwijk 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Emmen) and 53% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Emmen's games and 76% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Emmen's matches and 53% of Waalwijk's.
Do Emmen and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 2, as Emmen and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.28 xG and Waalwijk 1.66 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 30% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 46%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 46%, Waalwijk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.