Emmen 2-2 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vitesse make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 3W 6D 1L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Emmen against 1.40 for Vitesse. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Emmen lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Vitesse — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 42% versus Vitesse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 44% | Vitesse 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 0.91 xG and Vitesse 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.705 / defence 0.886 | Vitesse attack 1.061 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.234. Emmen's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Emmen games / 53 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 25% | Draw 36% | Vitesse 39%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Vitesse 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitesse as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 25% | Draw 36% | Vitesse 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Emmen 0.91 / Vitesse 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.705 / def 0.886 | Vitesse attack 1.061 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Vitesse xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Vitesse kick off?
Emmen vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Vitesse?
Emmen 2 - 2 Vitesse.
Where is Emmen vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Vitesse part of?
Emmen vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 25% chance of winning, Vitesse a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Emmen and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Vitesse?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Emmen and Vitesse in?
Emmen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.70x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (1.06x) against Emmen's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
25%
3.92
36%
2.79
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.07
1.16
Vitesse xG
3.92
25%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Emmen and 1.16 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 29W 11D 17L from 57 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 23L across 57 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Emmen against 1.33 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 17W 6D 5L from 28 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.26 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 29W 11D 17L in their last 57 games (1.72 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 21W 13D 23L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Vitesse away?
Emmen's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.04 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Emmen or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Vitesse in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Emmen
3
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, Vitesse have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Vitesse 3-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 39%, Vitesse 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Emmen) and 61% (Vitesse).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Vitesse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Emmen's recent matches and 54% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Emmen's recent games and 61% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Vitesse tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen and Vitesse share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen and Vitesse finished level at 2-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 0.91 xG and Vitesse 1.16 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.70 / defence 0.89 against Vitesse attack 1.06 / defence 0.88, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 25% | Draw 36% | Vitesse 39%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 44%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitesse's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.72 PPG, Vitesse 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.