Emmen 0-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Groningen meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Groningen (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Groningen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 44% versus Groningen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 49% | Groningen 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.28 xG and Groningen 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.668 / defence 1.082 | Groningen attack 0.865 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.334. Emmen's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Emmen games / 45 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 28% | Groningen 35%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Groningen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | Groningen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 28% | Groningen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Emmen 1.28 / Groningen 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.668 / def 1.082 | Groningen attack 0.865 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Emmen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Groningen xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Groningen kick off?
Emmen vs Groningen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Groningen?
Emmen 0 - 0 Groningen.
Where is Emmen vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Groningen part of?
Emmen vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 37% chance of winning, Groningen a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Emmen and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Groningen in?
Emmen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Groningen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.67) and Groningen's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.86x) against Emmen's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.58
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.53
1.25
Groningen xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Emmen and 1.25 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 45 games, going 26W 7D 12L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 1.04 PPG from 45 outings (12W 11D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 16W 3D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Emmen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (6W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.22 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen in 64%.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Groningen in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 26W 7D 12L in their last 45 games (1.89 PPG), while Groningen have gone 12W 11D 22L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Groningen away?
Emmen's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.32 PPG; Groningen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Emmen or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Groningen in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 0-3 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Emmen
3
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Groningen?
From 4 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, Groningen have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Emmen 0-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 46%, Groningen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Emmen and 68% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Emmen's games and 68% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Emmen's matches and 68% of Groningen's.
Do Emmen and Groningen tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Groningen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Emmen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen and Groningen finished level at 0-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.28 xG and Groningen 1.25 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Groningen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.67 / defence 1.08 against Groningen attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 37% | Draw 28% | Groningen 35%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 49%, Groningen 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Groningen's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.