Emmen 0-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Fortuna Sittard travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Emmen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Emmen 1.00 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Emmen, 0 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Emmen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 43% versus Fortuna Sittard 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 46% | Fortuna Sittard 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.35 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.795 / defence 0.964 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.022 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.213. Emmen's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Emmen games / 54 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 33% | Fortuna Sittard 30%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Fortuna Sittard 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | Fortuna Sittard 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 33% | Fortuna Sittard 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Emmen 1.35 / Fortuna Sittard 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.795 / def 0.964 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.022 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Emmen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Fortuna Sittard xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Emmen 0 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 37% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Emmen and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 0W.
What form are Emmen and Fortuna Sittard in?
Emmen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.80x the league average against Fortuna Sittard's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
37%
2.67
33%
3.06
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.55
1.20
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Emmen and 1.20 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 28W 11D 15L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 16W 10D 28L from 54 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Emmen have posted 2.12 PPG from 26 outings (16W 7D 3L).
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 7W 5D 14L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.13 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 28W 11D 15L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 10D 28L in their last 54 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Emmen's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.12 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Emmen or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Fortuna Sittard runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Emmen
0
Draws
1
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Fortuna Sittard?
From 2 meetings on record, Emmen have won 1, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Emmen 0-1 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 42%, Fortuna Sittard 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Emmen) and 65% (Fortuna Sittard). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Emmen's games and 69% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Emmen's matches and 65% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Emmen and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Emmen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Emmen 0-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.35 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.20 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Emmen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 37% | Draw 33% | Fortuna Sittard 30%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 46%, Fortuna Sittard 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.