De Graafschap 1-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.11 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.281. Data: 0 De Graafschap games / 0 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 33% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 39%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | FC Eindhoven 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 33% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG De Graafschap 1.11 / FC Eindhoven 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Eindhoven xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 33% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.60
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.37
1.25
FC Eindhoven xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.25 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
FC Eindhoven
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Relegation Round, as De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.11 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.25 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 33% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 39%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.