Cambuur 0-3 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cambuur at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cambuur Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 15 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuur Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vitesse have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Cambuur's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Vitesse's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cambuur have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Vitesse in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cambuur, 2 for Vitesse and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 63% and Vitesse 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 65% | Vitesse 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.37 xG and Vitesse 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.818 / defence 0.859 | Vitesse attack 0.748 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.280. Data: 43 Cambuur games / 43 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 22%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Vitesse 4.55. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cambuur 60% | Vitesse 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Cambuur 1.37 / Vitesse 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.818 / def 0.859 | Vitesse attack 0.748 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Vitesse xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Vitesse kick off?
Cambuur vs Vitesse kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Cambuur 0 - 3 Vitesse.
Where is Cambuur vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Vitesse part of?
Cambuur vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 49% chance of winning, Vitesse a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cambuur and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Vitesse?
Record (2 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Vitesse in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Vitesse (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.82x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.75x) against Cambuur's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.44
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.19
0.82
Vitesse xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
6%
17.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.82 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambuur's recent record stands at 13W 8D 22L from 43 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 19L across 43 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Cambuur against 1.30 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 6W 3D 11L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 8W 3D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.26 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Vitesse in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 22L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 16W 8D 19L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.05 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-6 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
4
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, Vitesse have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 75%, Vitesse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Cambuur and 55% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Cambuur's games and 50% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Cambuur's matches and 55% of Vitesse's.
Do Cambuur and Vitesse tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Cambuur 0-3 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.37 xG and Vitesse 0.82 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Vitesse outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.82 / defence 0.86 against Vitesse attack 0.75 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 49% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 22%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 65%, Vitesse 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vitesse's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.09 PPG, Vitesse 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.