Cambuur 0-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Cambuur Stadion to face Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur at Cambuur Stadion this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Cambuur's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cambuur register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Groningen in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambuur lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 67% and Groningen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 67% | Groningen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.42 xG and Groningen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.681 / defence 1.025 | Groningen attack 0.971 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.422. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Cambuur games / 39 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 38% | Draw 25% | Groningen 37%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Groningen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 80% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 38% | Draw 25% | Groningen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Cambuur 1.42 / Groningen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.681 / def 1.025 | Groningen attack 0.971 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Groningen xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Groningen kick off?
Cambuur vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Groningen?
Cambuur 0 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Cambuur vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Groningen part of?
Cambuur vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 38% chance of winning, Groningen a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cambuur and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Groningen?
Record (2 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | Groningen 1W.
What form are Cambuur and Groningen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.68) and Groningen's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.97x) against Cambuur's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
38%
2.66
25%
3.98
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.84
1.42
Groningen xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.42 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur come into this having played 39 games, going 12W 7D 20L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 1.05 PPG from 39 outings (10W 11D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Cambuur against 1.05 for Groningen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cambuur's home form reads 5W 3D 11L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.18 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Groningen in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Groningen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 12W 7D 20L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Groningen have gone 10W 11D 18L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.95 PPG; Groningen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Groningen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Groningen 3-0 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 84% for Cambuur, 74% for Groningen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Cambuur and 68% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Cambuur's games and 74% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Cambuur's matches and 68% of Groningen's.
Do Cambuur and Groningen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Groningen in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat Cambuur 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Cambuur 0-1 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.42 xG and Groningen 1.42 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.68 / defence 1.02 against Groningen attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 38% | Draw 25% | Groningen 37%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 67%, Groningen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Groningen's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.10 PPG, Groningen 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.