Cambuur 1-2 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambuur host Fortuna Sittard at Cambuur Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuur Stadion: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fortuna Sittard are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cambuur, 1 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 4–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 54% versus Fortuna Sittard 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 62% | Fortuna Sittard 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.00 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.582 / defence 1.356 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.994 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.262. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.582 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Cambuur games / 52 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 20% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 52%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Fortuna Sittard 1.92. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 10% | Fortuna Sittard 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 20% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Cambuur 1.00 / Fortuna Sittard 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.582 / def 1.356 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.994 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Fortuna Sittard xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Cambuur 1 - 2 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 20% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
20%
5.01
28%
3.54
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.70
1.70
Fortuna Sittard xG
5.01
20%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
4%
27.47
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.70 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur's recent record stands at 14W 9D 29L from 52 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 28L across 52 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 0.98 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 6W 3D 16L from 25 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 6W 5D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.13 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 14W 9D 29L in their last 52 games (0.98 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 15W 9D 28L in their last 52 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Fortuna Sittard's away record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.84 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cambuur
0
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2023, when Cambuur 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 60%, Fortuna Sittard 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Cambuur and 64% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cambuur's games and 68% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Cambuur's matches and 64% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.00 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.70 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.58 / defence 1.36 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.99 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 20% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 52%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 62%, Fortuna Sittard 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.98 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.