Cambuur 2-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambuur host Fortuna Sittard at Cambuur Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuur Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cambuur 0.90 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Fortuna Sittard in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cambuur, 1 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 73% and Fortuna Sittard 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 73% | Fortuna Sittard 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.98 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.123 / defence 1.751 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.715 / defence 1.573. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.363. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.573 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Cambuur games / 22 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 45% | Draw 21% | Fortuna Sittard 34%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.22 | Draw 4.76 | Fortuna Sittard 2.94. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 90% | Fortuna Sittard 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 45% | Draw 21% | Fortuna Sittard 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Cambuur 1.98 / Fortuna Sittard 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.123 / def 1.751 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.715 / def 1.573 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Fortuna Sittard xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Cambuur 2 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 45% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
45%
2.24
21%
4.66
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.68
1.71
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
5%
21.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.71 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur's recent record stands at 9W 3D 10L from 22 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 13L across 22 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.09 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Fortuna Sittard in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 9W 3D 10L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 5W 4D 13L in their last 22 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Cambuur's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.30 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cambuur
0
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2023, when Cambuur 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 90%, Fortuna Sittard at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Cambuur and 60% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Cambuur's games and 60% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Cambuur's matches and 60% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Cambuur and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Fortuna Sittard 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Fortuna Sittard 2-1 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.98 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.71 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.12 / defence 1.75 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.71 / defence 1.57, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 45% | Draw 21% | Fortuna Sittard 34%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 73%, Fortuna Sittard 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.