AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Stadion plays host to AZ Alkmaar versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 1L across 7 games at AFAS Stadion this term (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.71 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. AZ Alkmaar's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 71% of their games, Willem II in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 62% versus Willem II 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 69% | Willem II 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.62 xG and Willem II 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.349 / defence 1.168 | Willem II attack 0.813 / defence 1.615. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.354. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.615 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 AZ Alkmaar games / 16 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 66% | Draw 17% | Willem II 17%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.52 | Draw 5.88 | Willem II 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 71% | Willem II 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 66% | Draw 17% | Willem II 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 67% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.62 / Willem II 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.349 / def 1.168 | Willem II attack 0.813 / def 1.615 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Willem II xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar 4 - 1 Willem II.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 66% chance of winning, Willem II a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.62. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.81x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
66%
1.52
17%
5.79
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.91
1.29
Willem II xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.79
17%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
7%
13.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
1%
82.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.29 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.91.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 8W 2D 6L from 16 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 8L across 16 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AZ Alkmaar by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — AZ Alkmaar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Willem II's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.06 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 8W 2D 6L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Willem II have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Willem II away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.29 PPG; Willem II away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-1 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Willem II see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for AZ Alkmaar, 71% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for AZ Alkmaar and 71% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 71% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 71% of Willem II's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Willem II tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Willem II in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Willem II 4-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.62 xG and Willem II 1.29 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.35 / defence 1.17 against Willem II attack 0.81 / defence 1.61, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 66% | Draw 17% | Willem II 17%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 69%, Willem II 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.71 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.