AZ Alkmaar 1-3 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Stadion plays host to AZ Alkmaar versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at AFAS Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Waalwijk in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 0W, Waalwijk 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Waalwijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 73% and Waalwijk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 73% | Waalwijk 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.69 xG and Waalwijk 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.218 / defence 1.070 | Waalwijk attack 0.802 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.253. Data: 33 AZ Alkmaar games / 33 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 24%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 4.17. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 70% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.69 / Waalwijk 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.218 / def 1.070 | Waalwijk attack 0.802 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Waalwijk xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 3 Waalwijk.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 52% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 0W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.80x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.14
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.76
1.08
Waalwijk xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
4%
22.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.08 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 33 games, going 18W 7D 8L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.06 PPG from 33 outings (8W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 11W 3D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (2W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.12 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 18W 7D 8L in their last 33 games (1.85 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 8W 11D 14L in their last 33 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Waalwijk away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.25 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, Waalwijk have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for AZ Alkmaar, 75% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for AZ Alkmaar and 50% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 75% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 50% of Waalwijk's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat AZ Alkmaar 1-3 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.69 xG and Waalwijk 1.08 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.22 / defence 1.07 against Waalwijk attack 0.80 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 24%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 73%, Waalwijk 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.