AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as AZ Alkmaar welcome Vitesse to AFAS Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 January 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Vitesse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 1 for Vitesse and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 6–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 73% and Vitesse 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 71% | Vitesse 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.52 xG and Vitesse 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.978 / defence 0.991 | Vitesse attack 1.044 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.341. Data: 48 AZ Alkmaar games / 48 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 40% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 34%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Vitesse 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 80% | Vitesse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 40% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.52 / Vitesse 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.978 / def 0.991 | Vitesse attack 1.044 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Vitesse xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 40% chance of winning, Vitesse a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
Record (4 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 2W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
40%
2.48
25%
3.94
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.91
1.39
Vitesse xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.39 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 29W 9D 14L from 52 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 22L across 52 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AZ Alkmaar by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 16W 5D 4L from 25 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 10W 5D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.27 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 29W 9D 14L in their last 52 games (1.85 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 20W 10D 22L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Vitesse away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.12 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AZ Alkmaar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, Vitesse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 72%, Vitesse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for AZ Alkmaar and 64% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 52% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 64% of Vitesse's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.52 xG and Vitesse 1.39 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Vitesse attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 40% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 34%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 71%, Vitesse 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.