AZ Alkmaar 6-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Europa League Play-offs - Final as AZ Alkmaar welcome Vitesse to AFAS Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitesse's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (AZ Alkmaar) versus 1.60 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vitesse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 1 for Vitesse and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Vitesse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 73% and Vitesse 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 73% | Vitesse 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.52 xG and Vitesse 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.151 / defence 1.190 | Vitesse attack 0.833 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.303. Data: 34 AZ Alkmaar games / 34 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 43% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 32%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Vitesse 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 60% | Vitesse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Europa League Play-offs - Final | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 43% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.52 / Vitesse 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.151 / def 1.190 | Vitesse attack 0.833 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Vitesse xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
AZ Alkmaar 6 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse is a Europa League Play-offs - Final fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 43% chance of winning, Vitesse a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.00
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.82
1.29
Vitesse xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.29 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 19W 7D 11L from 37 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 17W 6D 14L across 37 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AZ Alkmaar on 1.73 PPG, Vitesse on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 12W 3D 3L from 18 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — AZ Alkmaar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vitesse's away record stands at 9W 3D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.30 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 19W 7D 11L in their last 37 games (1.73 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 17W 6D 14L in their last 37 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Vitesse away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.17 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AZ Alkmaar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, Vitesse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 67%, Vitesse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for AZ Alkmaar and 56% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 50% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 56% of Vitesse's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Vitesse 6-1 at AFAS Stadion, Europa League Play-offs - Final, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.52 xG and Vitesse 1.29 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.15 / defence 1.19 against Vitesse attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 43% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 32%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 73%, Vitesse 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.73 PPG, Vitesse 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.