AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as AZ Alkmaar welcome Vitesse to AFAS Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for Vitesse and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 69% and Vitesse 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 73% | Vitesse 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.28 xG and Vitesse 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.072 / defence 0.984 | Vitesse attack 0.807 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.308. Data: 27 AZ Alkmaar games / 26 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 30%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Vitesse 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: AZ Alkmaar 70% | Vitesse 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.28 / Vitesse 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.072 / def 0.984 | Vitesse attack 0.807 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Vitesse xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
AZ Alkmaar 3 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance of winning, Vitesse a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
Record (1 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 0W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.58
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.32
1.04
Vitesse xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.04 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 16W 4D 6L from 26 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 9L across 26 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AZ Alkmaar by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 9W 2D 2L from 13 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 3D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.27 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 16W 4D 6L in their last 26 games (2.00 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Vitesse away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.23 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AZ Alkmaar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, Vitesse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 62%, Vitesse 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (AZ Alkmaar) and 46% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 38%; Vitesse in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 38% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 46% of Vitesse's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Vitesse 3-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.28 xG and Vitesse 1.04 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Vitesse attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 30%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 73%, Vitesse 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.58. Form held, and they took the win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.