AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to AFAS Stadion to take on AZ Alkmaar. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 home games — 2.17 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
AZ Alkmaar are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 57% versus Sparta Rotterdam 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 64% | Sparta Rotterdam 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.78 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.265 / defence 1.162 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.758 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.346. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 AZ Alkmaar games / 14 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 51% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.00. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AZ Alkmaar 67% | Sparta Rotterdam 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 51% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.78 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.265 / def 1.162 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.758 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sparta Rotterdam xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
AZ Alkmaar 3 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 51% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.26x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.30
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.97
1.19
Sparta Rotterdam xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
4%
23.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.19 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 6W 2D 6L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 2W 4D 8L from 14 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — AZ Alkmaar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.79 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.17 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 67%, Sparta Rotterdam 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for AZ Alkmaar and 50% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 33% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.78 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.19 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.26 / defence 1.16 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 51% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, Sparta Rotterdam 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.