AZ Alkmaar 0-3 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 37%, yet in-form PSV Eindhoven provide a compelling counter-argument — this AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 3W 0D 0L across 3 Eredivisie outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PSV Eindhoven are 1.50 PPG clear of AZ Alkmaar in recent Eredivisie fixtures (3.00 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.25 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.945 / defence 1.150 | PSV Eindhoven attack 0.952 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.119. Data: 2 AZ Alkmaar games / 3 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 37% | Draw 27% | PSV Eindhoven 36%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | PSV Eindhoven 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PSV Eindhoven (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 37% | Draw 27% | PSV Eindhoven 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.25 / PSV Eindhoven 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.945 / def 1.150 | PSV Eindhoven attack 0.952 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.23
PSV Eindhoven xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
AZ Alkmaar 0 - 3 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 37% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (0.94) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (0.95x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 2/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.68
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.47
1.23
PSV Eindhoven xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.23 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AZ Alkmaar heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 4.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. PSV Eindhoven's attacking output running into AZ Alkmaar's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-4 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 2-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 100% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 100% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat AZ Alkmaar 0-3 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.25 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.2 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against PSV Eindhoven attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 37% | Draw 27% | PSV Eindhoven 36%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual PSV Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 50%, PSV Eindhoven 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AZ Alkmaar managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven managed 3 against a 4.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.