AZ Alkmaar 3-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to AFAS Stadion to face AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.33 PPG across 9 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.11 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's home record at AFAS Stadion: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.33 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.93 in AZ Alkmaar's favour (1.33 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games; they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 56% versus PEC Zwolle 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 78% | PEC Zwolle 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.81 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.469 / defence 1.129 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.567 / defence 1.412. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.350. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — their λ of 2.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.412 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 AZ Alkmaar games / 10 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 78% | Draw 14% | PEC Zwolle 9%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | PEC Zwolle 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: AZ Alkmaar 33% | PEC Zwolle 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 78% | Draw 14% | PEC Zwolle 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 54% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.81 / PEC Zwolle 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.469 / def 1.129 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.567 / def 1.412 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.86
PEC Zwolle xG
54%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar 3 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 78% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-0D-5L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.47x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.57x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
78%
1.29
14%
7.34
9%
11.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.67
0.86
PEC Zwolle xG
1.29
78%
Home win
7.34
14%
Draw
11.39
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
6%
16.61
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
1%
189.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.86 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 0D 5L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 0.44 PPG from 9 outings (1W 1D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — AZ Alkmaar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PEC Zwolle's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.44 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 0D 5L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or PEC Zwolle away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.00 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 33%, PEC Zwolle 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for AZ Alkmaar and 67% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar have failed to score in 33% of games; PEC Zwolle in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 67% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 67% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out PEC Zwolle 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat PEC Zwolle 3-2 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.81 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.86 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.47 / defence 1.13 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.57 / defence 1.41, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 78% | Draw 14% | PEC Zwolle 9%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 78%, PEC Zwolle 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.44. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.