AZ Alkmaar 1-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.50 for NEC Nijmegen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 54% versus NEC Nijmegen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 73% | NEC Nijmegen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.64 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.475 / defence 1.232 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.047 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.346. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.475 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. NEC Nijmegen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 AZ Alkmaar games / 12 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 57% | Draw 18% | NEC Nijmegen 25%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.75 | Draw 5.56 | NEC Nijmegen 4.00. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 50% | NEC Nijmegen 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 57% | Draw 18% | NEC Nijmegen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 76% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.64 / NEC Nijmegen 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.475 / def 1.232 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.047 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.74
NEC Nijmegen xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 57% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 25% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.64. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.05x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.6%. Close behind: 3-1 (6.7%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
57%
1.75
18%
5.50
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
4.37
1.74
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.75
57%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.68
7%
13.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
2%
56.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.74 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 0D 6L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.64 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — AZ Alkmaar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.45 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: NEC Nijmegen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 0D 6L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.25 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.75 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
NEC Nijmegen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
3
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for AZ Alkmaar, 100% for NEC Nijmegen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for AZ Alkmaar and 75% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 100% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 75% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.64 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.74 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.48 / defence 1.23 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.05 / defence 1.37, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 57% | Draw 18% | NEC Nijmegen 25%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 73%, NEC Nijmegen 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.36 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.