AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar host Groningen at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 6W 1D 1L at AFAS Stadion — 2.38 PPG. They are averaging 2.88 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's away record: 3W 1D 5L from 9 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, AZ Alkmaar have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Groningen in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, AZ Alkmaar have won 0, Groningen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Groningen in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 65% and Groningen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 71% | Groningen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.65 xG and Groningen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.452 / defence 1.132 | Groningen attack 0.892 / defence 1.518. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.397. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.452 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.518 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 AZ Alkmaar games / 17 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 64% | Draw 17% | Groningen 19%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.56 | Draw 5.88 | Groningen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 75% | Groningen 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 64% | Draw 17% | Groningen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 70% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.65 / Groningen 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.452 / def 1.132 | Groningen attack 0.892 / def 1.518 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Groningen xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 0 Groningen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 64% chance of winning, Groningen a 19% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
Record (1 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 0W | Draws 0 | Groningen 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Groningen in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Groningen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (1.45) and Groningen's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 2.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
64%
1.57
17%
5.75
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
4.06
1.41
Groningen xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.75
17%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
7%
14.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
1%
75.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.41 for Groningen, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 9W 2D 6L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 4W 7D 6L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2.38 PPG from 8 outings (6W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — AZ Alkmaar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Groningen have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.18 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Groningen in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Groningen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 9W 2D 6L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Groningen have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Groningen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.38 PPG; Groningen away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, Groningen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AZ Alkmaar at 75%, Groningen at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for AZ Alkmaar and 75% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 62% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 75% of Groningen's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Groningen tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Groningen in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Groningen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Groningen 1-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.65 xG and Groningen 1.41 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Groningen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.45 / defence 1.13 against Groningen attack 0.89 / defence 1.52, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 64% | Draw 17% | Groningen 19%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 71%, Groningen 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.