AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Stadion plays host to AZ Alkmaar versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 22 January 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at AFAS Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.50 for Fortuna Sittard — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Fortuna Sittard in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AZ Alkmaar lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 74% and Fortuna Sittard 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 68% | Fortuna Sittard 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.60 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.015 / defence 1.001 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.063 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.233. Data: 50 AZ Alkmaar games / 50 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 29%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Fortuna Sittard 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 80% | Fortuna Sittard 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.60 / Fortuna Sittard 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.015 / def 1.001 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.063 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Fortuna Sittard xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
AZ Alkmaar 3 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (2 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 2W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (1.06x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.42
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.92
1.31
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
6%
17.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.31 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 50 games, going 29W 10D 11L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 1.02 PPG from 50 outings (14W 9D 27L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 15W 6D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.12 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 29W 10D 11L in their last 50 games (1.94 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 14W 9D 27L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.12 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
AZ Alkmaar
0
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 8, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for AZ Alkmaar, 67% for Fortuna Sittard — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for AZ Alkmaar and 62% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 67% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 62% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Fortuna Sittard 3-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.60 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.31 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.06 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 29%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 68%, Fortuna Sittard 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.