AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 8W 2D 0L at AFAS Stadion — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Feyenoord (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. AZ Alkmaar's 2.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Feyenoord's 2.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 1 for Feyenoord and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Feyenoord winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 65% versus Feyenoord 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 70% | Feyenoord 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.25 xG and Feyenoord 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.203 / defence 0.989 | Feyenoord attack 1.144 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.355. Data: 23 AZ Alkmaar games / 23 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 31% | Draw 25% | Feyenoord 44%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Feyenoord 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AZ Alkmaar (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 70% | Feyenoord 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 31% | Draw 25% | Feyenoord 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.25 / Feyenoord 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.203 / def 0.989 | Feyenoord attack 1.144 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Feyenoord xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 31% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Record (1 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.14x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
31%
3.21
25%
3.99
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.79
1.53
Feyenoord xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
14.88
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.53 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 14W 3D 6L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 16W 3D 4L from 23 games, 2.22 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 2.22 for Feyenoord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2.36 PPG from 11 outings (8W 2D 1L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 7W 2D 2L from 11 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.39 scored and 0.87 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 14W 3D 6L in their last 23 games (1.96 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 16W 3D 4L in their last 23 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Feyenoord away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.36 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.09 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 64%, Feyenoord 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for AZ Alkmaar and 64% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 46% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 64% of Feyenoord's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AZ Alkmaar defy the odds to beat Feyenoord 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Feyenoord 2-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.25 xG and Feyenoord 1.53 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against Feyenoord attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 31% | Draw 25% | Feyenoord 44%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 70%, Feyenoord 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.96 PPG, Feyenoord 2.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.