AZ Alkmaar 2-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees FC Volendam travel to AFAS Stadion to take on AZ Alkmaar. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Volendam trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 74% and FC Volendam 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 71% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.31 xG and FC Volendam 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.971 / defence 0.984 | FC Volendam attack 0.694 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.298. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 AZ Alkmaar games / 11 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 69% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 12%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | FC Volendam 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 80% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 69% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.31 / FC Volendam 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.971 / def 0.984 | FC Volendam attack 0.694 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Volendam xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 69% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 0.97x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.27
12%
8.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.19
0.89
FC Volendam xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
8.14
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
10%
10.05
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
1%
81.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.89 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 27W 9D 13L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 22W 15D 12L from 49 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AZ Alkmaar on 1.84 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2.08 PPG from 24 outings (15W 5D 4L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 8W 11D 5L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.90 scored and 1.71 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 73%.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 27W 9D 13L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 22W 15D 12L in their last 49 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or FC Volendam away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.08 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when AZ Alkmaar won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, FC Volendam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AZ Alkmaar at 71%, FC Volendam at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (AZ Alkmaar) and 50% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 50% of FC Volendam's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out FC Volendam 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat FC Volendam 2-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.31 xG and FC Volendam 0.89 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against FC Volendam attack 0.69 / defence 1.39, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 69% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 12%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 71%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.84 PPG, FC Volendam 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.