Ajax 5-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Willem II travel to Johan Cruijff Arena to take on Ajax. The game is scheduled for Thursday 2 December 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 1L across 7 games at Johan Cruijff Arena this term (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 3.86 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 7 home games (86%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ajax are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Ajax in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 86% of the time.
Willem II in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajax 7% | Willem II 57%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 50% | Willem II 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.85 xG and Willem II 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.657 / defence 0.686 | Willem II attack 0.879 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.309. Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.657 — their λ of 2.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Ajax's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ajax's defence rating of 0.686 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 14 Ajax games / 14 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 80% | Draw 13% | Willem II 8%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.25 | Draw 7.69 | Willem II 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (80%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Ajax 0% | Willem II 71% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 80% | Draw 13% | Willem II 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 51% | xG Ajax 2.85 / Willem II 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.657 / def 0.686 | Willem II attack 0.879 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Ajax (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.85
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Willem II xG
51%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs Willem II kick off?
Ajax vs Willem II kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 2 December 2021 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax 5 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Ajax vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs Willem II part of?
Ajax vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 80% chance of winning, Willem II a 8% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ajax and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajax and Willem II in?
Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajax's attacking strength (1.66x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.85. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
80%
1.26
13%
7.81
8%
13.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.85
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.64
0.79
Willem II xG
1.26
80%
Home win
7.81
13%
Draw
13.30
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
6%
17.34
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ajax and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.85 expected goals for Ajax and 0.79 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajax come into this having played 14 games, going 10W 3D 1L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ajax's home form reads 5W 1D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajax are averaging 3.07 goals scored and 0.14 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.14 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 7% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 86% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and Willem II in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 10W 3D 1L in their last 14 games (2.36 PPG), while Willem II have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Willem II away?
Ajax's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.29 PPG; Willem II away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Ajax or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 86% of their recent games, Willem II in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajax and Willem II runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajax have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2021, when Ajax won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Ajax
0
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajax have won 4, Willem II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Willem II 1-2 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Willem II?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Willem II see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 0%, Willem II 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ajax and 71% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 86% of their matches; Ajax have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ajax's recent matches and 71% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajax vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ajax's matches and 71% of Willem II's.
Do Ajax and Willem II tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Willem II in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Willem II 5-0 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.85 xG and Willem II 0.79 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ajax beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.66 / defence 0.69 against Willem II attack 0.88 / defence 1.43, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 80% | Draw 13% | Willem II 8%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 50%, Willem II 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 7% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 86% of the time, and duly kept one.
Willem II's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.86 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.