Ajax 5-0 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ajax at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as Ajax welcome PSV Eindhoven to Johan Cruijff Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have gone 7W 1D 1L from 9 outings — a 2.44 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 3.56 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.22 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 9 games (78%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 11% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Johan Cruijff Arena, Ajax have gone 4W 0D 1L this season (5 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 4.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Johan Cruijff Arena.
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 7W 0D 2L from 9 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.33 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.44 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.44 PPG (Ajax) versus 2.33 (PSV Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Ajax in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 78% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajax 11% versus PSV Eindhoven 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ajax 56% | PSV Eindhoven 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.11 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.766 / defence 0.741 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.032 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.403. Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.766 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ajax's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 9 Ajax games / 9 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 61% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 19%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | PSV Eindhoven 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Ajax 0% | PSV Eindhoven 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 61% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Ajax 2.11 / PSV Eindhoven 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.766 / def 0.741 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.032 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Ajax (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.07
PSV Eindhoven xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Ajax 5 - 0 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 61% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ajax and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajax and PSV Eindhoven in?
Ajax (all comps): 7W-1D-1L in 9 | 2.44 PPG | GF 3.56 / GA 0.22 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-0D-2L in 9 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.44 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajax's attack rating (1.77) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
61%
1.64
20%
4.90
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.18
1.07
PSV Eindhoven xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
2%
44.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Ajax and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Ajax and 1.07 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajax come into this having played 9 games, going 7W 1D 1L for 2.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.33 PPG from 9 outings (7W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajax on 2.44 PPG, PSV Eindhoven on 2.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ajax's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.25 points per game from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ajax are averaging 3.56 goals scored and 0.22 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.44 scored and 1.33 conceded. PSV Eindhoven's attacking output running into Ajax's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 11% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 67%.
Defensively: Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 78% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 7W 1D 1L in their last 9 games (2.44 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 0D 2L in their last 9 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
Ajax's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.25 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Ajax or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 78% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Ajax won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ajax
3
Draws
3
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajax have won 4, PSV Eindhoven have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Ajax 2-2 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and PSV Eindhoven?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajax 0% BTTS, PSV Eindhoven 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Ajax and 75% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; PSV Eindhoven in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play PSV Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ajax's recent matches and 50% of PSV Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Ajax's matches and 75% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Ajax and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 5-0 hammering of PSV Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat PSV Eindhoven 5-0 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.11 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.07 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ajax beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.77 / defence 0.74 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 61% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 19%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 56%, PSV Eindhoven 89%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 11% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 78% of the time, and duly kept one.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajax 2.44 PPG, PSV Eindhoven 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.