Ajax 3-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Johan Cruijff Arena plays host to Ajax versus Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 6 February 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ajax have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Johan Cruijff Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Johan Cruijff Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Heracles (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Heracles have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.22 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Ajax's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Heracles's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ajax, 0 for Heracles and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ajax — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.
Heracles — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajax 15% | Heracles 55%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 60% | Heracles 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.29 xG and Heracles 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.680 / defence 0.787 | Heracles attack 0.579 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.345. Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.680 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Ajax's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ajax's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 20 Ajax games / 20 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 75% | Draw 17% | Heracles 8%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Heracles 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajax 10% | Heracles 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 75% | Draw 17% | Heracles 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 42% | xG Ajax 2.29 / Heracles 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.680 / def 0.787 | Heracles attack 0.579 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Ajax (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Heracles xG
42%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs Heracles kick off?
Ajax vs Heracles kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Heracles?
Ajax 3 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Ajax vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs Heracles part of?
Ajax vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 75% chance of winning, Heracles a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ajax and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): Ajax 0W | Draws 1 | Heracles 0W.
What form are Ajax and Heracles in?
Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Heracles (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ajax's attack rating (1.68) and Heracles's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.58x) against Ajax's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 3-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
75%
1.33
17%
5.85
8%
12.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Ajax xG
Total xG
2.90
0.61
Heracles xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
12.53
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
10%
9.84
Win to Nil
41%
2.46
1%
123.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ajax and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Ajax and 0.61 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ajax come into this having played 20 games, going 15W 3D 2L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ajax's home form reads 6W 1D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajax are averaging 3.05 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 15% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and Heracles in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 15W 3D 2L in their last 20 games (2.40 PPG), while Heracles have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Heracles away?
Ajax's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.11 PPG; Heracles away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Ajax or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their recent games, Heracles in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ajax go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 4-0 on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajax have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Ajax
1
Draws
0
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Ajax have won 7, Heracles have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Heracles 0-3 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Heracles?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Ajax) and 56% (Heracles) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Ajax and 44% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 78% of their matches; Heracles in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Ajax's recent matches and 56% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajax vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Ajax's matches and 44% of Heracles's.
Do Ajax and Heracles tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Heracles in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Heracles 3-0 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.29 xG and Heracles 0.61 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.68 / defence 0.79 against Heracles attack 0.58 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 75% | Draw 17% | Heracles 8%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 60%, Heracles 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and duly kept one.
Heracles's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.