Ajax 3-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Ajax welcome Feyenoord to Johan Cruijff Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajax have posted 7W 1D 2L at Johan Cruijff Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Johan Cruijff Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Johan Cruijff Arena this season.
Feyenoord — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ajax are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ajax, 0 for Feyenoord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Ajax winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ajax trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 73% of the time.
Feyenoord trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajax 23% versus Feyenoord 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ajax 65% | Feyenoord 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.12 xG and Feyenoord 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.843 / defence 0.846 | Feyenoord attack 1.150 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.274. Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.843 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Ajax games / 26 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 58% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 22%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Feyenoord 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data: Ajax 20% | Feyenoord 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 58% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Ajax 2.12 / Feyenoord 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.843 / def 0.846 | Feyenoord attack 1.150 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Ajax (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Feyenoord xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs Feyenoord kick off?
Ajax vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Feyenoord?
Ajax 3 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Ajax vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs Feyenoord part of?
Ajax vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 58% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ajax and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Feyenoord?
Record (1 meetings): Ajax 1W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 0W.
What form are Ajax and Feyenoord in?
Ajax (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajax's attacking strength (1.84x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
58%
1.74
21%
4.84
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.36
1.24
Feyenoord xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
12%
8.34
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
3%
38.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Ajax and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Ajax and 1.24 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajax's recent record stands at 20W 3D 3L from 26 games, a 2.42 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 17W 4D 5L across 26 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajax on 2.42 PPG, Feyenoord on 2.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajax have managed 10W 1D 2L from 13 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 8W 2D 3L across 13 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajax are averaging 2.96 goals scored and 0.42 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.27 scored and 0.92 conceded. Ajax's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 73% of their games; Feyenoord in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 20W 3D 3L in their last 26 games (2.42 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 17W 4D 5L in their last 26 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Feyenoord away?
Ajax's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.38 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Ajax or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 73% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Apr 2024, when Feyenoord won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajax
2
Draws
3
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajax have won 5, Feyenoord have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Feyenoord 1-1 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Feyenoord?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 77% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajax 15% BTTS, Feyenoord 54%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Ajax and 69% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 77% of their matches; Feyenoord in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of Ajax's recent matches and 54% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajax vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Ajax's matches and 69% of Feyenoord's.
Do Ajax and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Feyenoord 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Feyenoord 3-2 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.12 xG and Feyenoord 1.24 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ajax beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.84 / defence 0.85 against Feyenoord attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 58% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 22%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 65%, Feyenoord 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 73% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajax 2.42 PPG, Feyenoord 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.