ADO Den Haag 2-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 38%, yet in-form ADO Den Haag provide a compelling counter-argument — this ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as ADO Den Haag welcome NAC Breda to Cars Jeans Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have gone 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Eredivisie matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, ADO Den Haag have the edge — a 3.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, ADO Den Haag have won 2, NAC Breda 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2022, ended 2–1 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.14 xG and NAC Breda 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.253. Data: 0 ADO Den Haag games / 0 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 34% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 38%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | NAC Breda 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ADO Den Haag (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 34% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.14 / NAC Breda 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.23
NAC Breda xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda part of?
ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 34% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): ADO Den Haag 2W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (0.85) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.59
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.37
1.23
NAC Breda xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.23 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of ADO Den Haag's games and 100% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 100% of NAC Breda's.
Do ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat NAC Breda 2-1 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.14 xG and NAC Breda 1.23 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 34% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 38%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 100%, NAC Breda 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.