Willem II 1-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Willem II at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 11 December 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Koning Willem II Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Willem II's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of NAC Breda's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 52% versus NAC Breda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 54% | NAC Breda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.53 xG and NAC Breda 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.750 / defence 1.009 | NAC Breda attack 1.072 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.342. Willem II's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.53 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Willem II games / 54 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 36%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Willem II 1.53 / NAC Breda 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.750 / def 1.009 | NAC Breda attack 1.072 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.45
NAC Breda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs NAC Breda kick off?
Willem II vs NAC Breda kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Willem II 1 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Willem II vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs NAC Breda part of?
Willem II vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 40% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Willem II and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and NAC Breda in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.75) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.07x) against Willem II's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
40%
2.52
24%
4.11
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.99
1.45
NAC Breda xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Willem II and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Willem II and 1.45 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 12D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.42 PPG from 50 outings (20W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Willem II against 1.42 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 10W 5D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (8W 3D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.46 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 20W 11D 19L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or NAC Breda away?
Willem II's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.46 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Willem II or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
3
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, NAC Breda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 46%, NAC Breda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Willem II) and 71% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 29% of games; NAC Breda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Willem II's recent matches and 58% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Willem II's matches and 71% of NAC Breda's.
Do Willem II and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.53 xG and NAC Breda 1.45 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against NAC Breda attack 1.07 / defence 1.23, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 40% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 36%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 54%, NAC Breda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.14 PPG, NAC Breda 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.