Willem II 1-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 5 as Willem II welcome ADO Den Haag to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ADO Den Haag away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.70 (ADO Den Haag). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 45% versus ADO Den Haag 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | ADO Den Haag 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.78 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.870 / defence 1.018 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.881 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.388. ADO Den Haag bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Willem II games / 42 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 50% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 27%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | ADO Den Haag 3.70. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 40% | ADO Den Haag 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 50% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Willem II 1.78 / ADO Den Haag 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.870 / def 1.018 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.881 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Willem II (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.25
ADO Den Haag xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Willem II vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Willem II 1 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Willem II vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Willem II vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 50% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Willem II and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and ADO Den Haag in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.87) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.30
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.03
1.25
ADO Den Haag xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
5%
22.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Willem II and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Willem II and 1.25 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 8D 20L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 20W 8D 10L from 38 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Willem II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 9W 3D 7L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.82 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.47 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when ADO Den Haag won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and ADO Den Haag?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Willem II 0-1 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and ADO Den Haag?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 42%, ADO Den Haag 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Willem II) and 63% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 37% of games; ADO Den Haag in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Willem II's recent matches and 53% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Willem II's matches and 63% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Willem II and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out ADO Den Haag 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.78 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.25 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 50% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 27%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, ADO Den Haag 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.