Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host Jong Utrecht at Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2027 at 14:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 5W 3D 2L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Waalwijk 1.40 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 0, Jong Utrecht 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 77% and Jong Utrecht 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 64% | Jong Utrecht 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.70 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.334 / defence 1.048 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.923 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.953 / away 1.573. Waalwijk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 2.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Waalwijk games / 47 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 63% | Draw 17% | Jong Utrecht 20%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.59 | Draw 5.88 | Jong Utrecht 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.22. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.22 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.70 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 63% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2027, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 63% | Draw 17% | Jong Utrecht 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 73% | xG Waalwijk 2.70 / Jong Utrecht 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.334 / def 1.048 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.923 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.953 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.70
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Jong Utrecht xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht is scheduled to kick off at 14:45 on Sunday 25 April 2027 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 63% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 20% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waalwijk's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.70. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.3%), 1-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
63%
1.60
17%
5.75
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.70
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
4.22
1.52
Jong Utrecht xG
1.60
63%
Home win
5.75
17%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
7%
14.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
1%
73.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.52 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 4.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 18W 16D 13L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 14W 11D 22L from 47 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.49 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.55 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Jong Utrecht in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 18W 16D 13L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.57 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
1
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Waalwijk 2-2 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 83%, Jong Utrecht at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Waalwijk and 56% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Waalwijk's games and 61% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Waalwijk's matches and 56% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.