VVV Venlo 0-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Willem II travel to Covebo Stadion - De Koel - to take on VVV Venlo. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, VVV Venlo have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Willem II's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VVV Venlo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
VVV Venlo trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Willem II trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 58% versus Willem II 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 65% | Willem II 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.31 xG and Willem II 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.801 / defence 1.085 | Willem II attack 1.174 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.376. Data: 52 VVV Venlo games / 14 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 23% | Willem II 48%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 2.08. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 60% | Willem II 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 23% | Willem II 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG VVV Venlo 1.31 / Willem II 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.801 / def 1.085 | Willem II attack 1.174 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Willem II (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Willem II xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Willem II kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
VVV Venlo 0 - 0 Willem II.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Willem II part of?
VVV Venlo vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 29% chance of winning, Willem II a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VVV Venlo and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VVV Venlo and Willem II in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 0.80x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
29%
3.49
23%
4.27
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.06
1.75
Willem II xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
5%
20.11
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.75 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 8D 21L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 15W 10D 23L from 48 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.35 PPG, Willem II on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 4W 5D 14L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.10 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Willem II in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 19W 8D 21L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Willem II have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Willem II away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.26 PPG; Willem II away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Willem II have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 1, Willem II have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Willem II 2-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 61%, Willem II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for VVV Venlo and 61% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of VVV Venlo's games and 61% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of VVV Venlo's matches and 61% of Willem II's.
Do VVV Venlo and Willem II tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Willem II in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VVV Venlo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo and Willem II finished level at 0-0 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.31 xG and Willem II 1.75 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VVV Venlo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Willem II landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Willem II attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 23% | Willem II 48%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 65%, Willem II 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.35 PPG, Willem II 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.