VVV Venlo 1-4 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as VVV Venlo welcome Jong PSV U21 to Covebo Stadion - De Koel -. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's home record at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VVV Venlo are significantly better at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - than their overall form suggests.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jong PSV U21 are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VVV Venlo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong PSV U21 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for VVV Venlo, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VVV Venlo trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 57% versus Jong PSV U21 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 62% | Jong PSV U21 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.51 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.971 / defence 1.199 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.771 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.543. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing VVV Venlo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 VVV Venlo games / 21 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 40% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 36%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Jong PSV U21 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VVV Venlo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong PSV U21 (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 60% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 40% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG VVV Venlo 1.51 / Jong PSV U21 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.971 / def 1.199 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.771 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Jong PSV U21 xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21?
VVV Venlo 1 - 4 Jong PSV U21.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 40% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21?
Record (1 meetings): VVV Venlo 0W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 0.97x the league average against Jong PSV U21's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
40%
2.53
25%
4.05
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.94
1.43
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.43 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 2D 11L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.24 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VVV Venlo's home form reads 5W 0D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.62 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 8W 2D 11L in their last 21 games (1.24 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.50 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Jong PSV U21 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Jong PSV U21 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
5
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-0 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 60%, Jong PSV U21 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for VVV Venlo and 60% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of VVV Venlo's games and 60% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VVV Venlo's matches and 60% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong PSV U21 run riot with a 1-4 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat VVV Venlo 1-4 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.51 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.43 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.77 / defence 1.34, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 40% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 36%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 62%, Jong PSV U21 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.24 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.