VVV Venlo 0-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ meet at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
VVV Venlo (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ have collected 3.00 PPG across 3 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.67. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jong AZ are 1.67 PPG clear of VVV Venlo in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (3.00 vs 1.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Jong AZ in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 100% and Jong AZ 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VVV Venlo 100% | Jong AZ 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.31 xG and Jong AZ 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.132 / defence 1.174 | Jong AZ attack 0.896 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.621. Data: 3 VVV Venlo games / 3 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 47%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Jong AZ 2.13. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 100% | Jong AZ 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG VVV Venlo 1.31 / Jong AZ 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.132 / def 1.174 | Jong AZ attack 0.896 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.621 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Jong AZ xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
VVV Venlo 0 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ part of?
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 30% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VVV Venlo and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (1.13) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.90x) against VVV Venlo's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
30%
3.39
24%
4.21
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.01
1.71
Jong AZ xG
3.39
30%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
5%
18.65
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.71 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 1.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VVV Venlo heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have VVV Venlo or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
VVV Venlo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 3-0 on 3 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
8
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 1, Jong AZ have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for VVV Venlo, 67% for Jong AZ — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for VVV Venlo and 67% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of VVV Venlo's games and 67% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of VVV Venlo's matches and 67% of Jong AZ's.
Do VVV Venlo and Jong AZ tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong AZ edge out VVV Venlo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat VVV Venlo 0-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.31 xG and Jong AZ 1.71 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VVV Venlo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 1.13 / defence 1.17 against Jong AZ attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 47%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 100%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. VVV Venlo managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.