VVV Venlo 0-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VVV Venlo host Dordrecht at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Dordrecht have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
VVV Venlo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, VVV Venlo have won 2, Dordrecht 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2022, ended 4–2 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 58% and Dordrecht 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VVV Venlo 67% | Dordrecht 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.48 xG and Dordrecht 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.891 / defence 1.033 | Dordrecht attack 0.813 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.363. Data: 48 VVV Venlo games / 48 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 45% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 29%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 3.45. VVV Venlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 50% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 45% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG VVV Venlo 1.48 / Dordrecht 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.891 / def 1.033 | Dordrecht attack 0.813 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dordrecht xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
VVV Venlo 0 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht part of?
VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 45% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both VVV Venlo and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): VVV Venlo 2W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Dordrecht in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.87
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.62
1.15
Dordrecht xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.15 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 19W 8D 21L from 48 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 24L across 48 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.35 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 9W 6D 9L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 4W 5D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.35 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 19W 8D 21L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 11D 24L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Dordrecht away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.38 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VVV Venlo and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
0
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Dordrecht have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VVV Venlo at 62%, Dordrecht at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for VVV Venlo and 79% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of VVV Venlo's games and 75% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of VVV Venlo's matches and 79% of Dordrecht's.
Do VVV Venlo and Dordrecht tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat VVV Venlo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat VVV Venlo 0-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.48 xG and Dordrecht 1.15 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VVV Venlo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Dordrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 45% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 29%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 67%, Dordrecht 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.35 PPG, Dordrecht 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.