VVV Venlo 2-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as VVV Venlo welcome Den Bosch to Covebo Stadion - De Koel -. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo's home record at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 2W 0D 3L from 5 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VVV Venlo at 1.40 PPG versus Den Bosch's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
VVV Venlo trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Den Bosch trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 60% versus Den Bosch 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 60% | Den Bosch 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.03 xG and Den Bosch 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.902 / defence 1.104 | Den Bosch attack 0.662 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.386. Data: 5 VVV Venlo games / 5 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 35% | Draw 30% | Den Bosch 34%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Den Bosch 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VVV Venlo as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 67% | Den Bosch 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 35% | Draw 30% | Den Bosch 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG VVV Venlo 1.03 / Den Bosch 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.902 / def 1.104 | Den Bosch attack 0.662 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Den Bosch xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
VVV Venlo 2 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch part of?
VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 35% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both VVV Venlo and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VVV Venlo and Den Bosch in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.28
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.04
1.01
Den Bosch xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.01 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 2W 1D 2L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch's form line: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.40 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 20%.
Defensively: Den Bosch in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have VVV Venlo or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
VVV Venlo have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when VVV Venlo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Den Bosch 0-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 60%, Den Bosch 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (VVV Venlo) and 40% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 40%; Den Bosch in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 20% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 40% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and Den Bosch tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VVV Venlo edge out Den Bosch 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Den Bosch 2-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.03 xG and Den Bosch 1.01 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Den Bosch attack 0.66 / defence 0.95, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 35% | Draw 30% | Den Bosch 34%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 60%, Den Bosch 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.40 PPG, Den Bosch 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.